As Independence Day approaches, President Joe Biden’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” is running headlong into a legislative wall, with Senate Republicans divided, procedural traps set, and the clock ticking. The ambitious package—hailed by supporters as a transformational blueprint for federal spending and scorned by critics as fiscally reckless—is now locked in a bitter standoff that could determine not only the bill’s fate, but the political capital of an entire administration.

With just eight days until the July 4 deadline, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is scrambling to rally enough support to get the bill through the upper chamber and onto the House floor. But despite White House optimism, Capitol Hill remains in a procedural holding pattern—one that’s being shaped as much by tradition as by political strategy.

At the heart of the delay is the Senate parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, an unelected yet powerful gatekeeper of legislative order. Her recent rulings on key provisions—especially those affecting Medicaid—have thrown the process into uncertainty. The bill aims to restructure how states manage their Medicaid funding, but many of those changes now face exclusion unless Democrats can maneuver through a labyrinth of Senate rules.

That labyrinth requires the bill to pass through “budget reconciliation” to avoid the 60-vote filibuster threshold. But only certain fiscal provisions qualify. MacDonough’s judgment on what counts could strip the bill of its most controversial—and consequential—elements.

“This is the real test of Senate leadership,” said Riley Rogerson, a political correspondent with Notice, in a recent interview. “The House passed their version with a lot of fireworks, but now the Senate has to do the real lifting. And the cracks are already showing.”

One of the largest cracks? The Medicaid cuts. Progressives see the proposal as a political gift—an easy line of attack against Republicans in upcoming races. But inside the GOP, opinions are far from united.

On one end of the spectrum are moderates like Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who remain wary of slashing healthcare benefits. On the other are hardliners such as Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who argue the cuts don’t go far enough. And hovering in the middle is Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a wild card who has expressed concern about the scope of the reductions but hasn’t ruled out voting yes.

Despite the divisions, Trump loyalists in both chambers are pressuring their colleagues to fall in line. Trump himself has reportedly made personal calls to lawmakers, offering support—or issuing threats. One example: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who voted against previous Trump-backed measures, now faces the specter of a primary challenger supported by the former president.

Speaker Mike Johnson has already weathered his own internal battles to shepherd the bill through the House. Now, it’s Thune’s turn to prove he can deliver in the Senate.

“This is the first real test for Thune in terms of forcing a vote that makes a lot of his members uncomfortable,” Rogerson explained. “The pressure from the White House is going to be intense. And if persuasion doesn’t work, the Trump camp won’t hesitate to turn up the heat.”

Still, some conservatives are calling for a more aggressive approach. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) even suggested firing the parliamentarian rather than letting procedural rulings obstruct the Medicaid cuts. But Thune has publicly rejected the idea, saying the Senate must respect institutional norms—even if that means sacrificing certain parts of the bill.

That stance puts Thune at odds with House conservatives, who are urging him to bulldoze through the rules and deliver the bill intact. For them, tradition is less important than results.

And while most Americans may not know who Elizabeth MacDonough is, her decisions in the next few days could determine whether Biden’s landmark legislation lives or dies. Even House Republicans like Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) have admitted they had to “Google” her name—yet her procedural calls are